Human Day Trading Versus Fly-Derived Reservoir Trading: A Deep Comparative Study of Returns, Return Structure, Risk Appetite, and a Prospective Single-Trader Test

Publication date: 2026-09-14

Contributors: Ogdn Ames

Abstract

This paper compares a fly-connectome-derived artificial recurrent trading system with empirical evidence on human day traders, focusing on returns, return structure, and risk appetite. The prior fly evidence does not establish a benchmark-beating trading advantage, while human day-trader research generally finds losses after costs alongside a small persistent-skill right tail. Human risk taking is endogenous and path dependent, whereas the fly system implements an engineered state-to-risk mapping. The paper therefore does not claim a winner and instead specifies a 252-session prospective intraday protocol with matched data, constraints, transaction costs, and preregistered outcomes.

Keywords: day trading, reservoir computing, Drosophila connectome, behavioral finance, risk appetite, return structure, transaction costs, prospective validation

Published by Ames Investment Systems

License: All rights reserved
Permission is required for reuse beyond applicable legal exceptions.