Live performance
Actual trading for the current macro strategy, which entered live trading in 2024.
Research discipline
A deliberate path from research to live trading.
Explicit development periods and separate evaluation stages help assess whether an investment idea holds up beyond the data used to build it.
- 01
Develop
Historical research with an explicit development period.
- 02
Out-of-sample
Evaluate unseen data without tuning to the evaluation period.
- 03
Final holdout validation
Reserve a final blind subset for deployment readiness.
- 04
Live incubation
Review actual fills, slippage, drawdowns and signal stability.
- 05
Deploy & monitor
Scale gradually, monitor drift and re-estimate capacity.
Evidence hierarchy
Know what each result represents.
Historical managed-account composite
Multiple accounts and multiple strategy regimes, including discontinued strategies. Not the current macro strategy alone.
Out-of-sample research
Evaluation on unseen historical data. Research evidence, not live trading.
In-sample development
The model-development period. Context for the research process, not a live record.
Modeled / simulated results
Hypothetical scenario and risk estimates, dependent on assumptions. Actual outcomes may differ materially.
Monitoring
Validation continues after deployment.
Execution and slippage review, signal monitoring, gradual scaling and capacity re-estimation inform ongoing oversight. Historical regime shocks and scenario simulations supplement this process.
Past, live, incubated, historical managed-account composite, backtested, out-of-sample, hypothetical, simulated and modeled results are not indicative of future results. These evidence categories are distinct. The historical managed-account composite spans multiple accounts and strategy regimes and is not the current macro strategy alone. Objectives, targets and estimates are not guarantees, promises or predictions. Assumptions may prove incorrect, and models cannot capture every structural break, liquidity crisis, operational failure or nonlinear event.
Allocator diligence
Start with the evidence.
Discuss the strategy, research process and operational readiness with AIS.