Kansas Farmers Have $284 Million at Risk — And $6 Diesel Could Turn Harvest Into a Cash-Flow Squeeze

Publication date: 2026-09-10

Contributors: Ogdn Ames, Michael Schuler

Abstract

This joint research brief estimates that Kansas farms could face roughly $189.5 million to $379.0 million in additional annualized fuel costs if Midwest diesel prices remain near early-September levels. The 75% base case implies approximately $284.3 million of gross annualized cost exposure as harvest begins. The analysis reconstructs diesel-equivalent fuel volume from USDA agricultural fuel and oil purchases, tests low, base, and high exposure scenarios, and examines the contribution of crude oil and refined-diesel market conditions. The estimates describe cash-flow exposure scenarios rather than realized losses or predictions of farm profitability.

Keywords: Kansas agriculture, diesel prices, harvest cash flow, fuel cost exposure, energy markets, rural businesses

Published by Ames Investment Systems

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