U.S.-Canada Tariffs: Incidence, Economic Exposure, and Conditional Policy Scenarios

Publication date: 2026-09-11

Contributors: Ogdn Ames

Abstract

This study examines U.S.-Canada trade restrictions using government instruments, Census trade values, central-bank publications, academic evidence, market observations, and archived institutional research. It distinguishes verified current measures from announced future actions, describes importer-side incidence and limits on retail pass-through, and presents transparent sensitivity calculations for a hypothetical tariff. The scenarios are conditional calculations rather than contemporary estimates, and the paper identifies where the evidence cannot support causal GDP, household-burden, employment, or political-probability conclusions.

Keywords: tariffs, Canada, United States, trade incidence, USMCA, retaliation, conditional scenarios, economic exposure

Published by Ames Investment Systems

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